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>Gold
investment choices on the rise |
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By: Tim
Wood |
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Posted:
2003/05/05 Mon 17:03 EDT | © Mineweb 1997-2003 |
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NEW
YORK -- One popular excuse for weak gold prices is the lack of product and
distribution. It is really a coded phrase meaning that the majority of
Western investors would prefer to own gold in a non-physical form.
It is not
difficult to buy gold if you desire it. You can buy gold coins by mail
order in most places while dealers of one sort or another dot every major
city in North America, Europe and Japan. Walk in, put your money down and
take home your gold. If you’re a more substantial player, you can also buy
futures contracts and take delivery of large lots.
For modern gold marketers the base of
investors who like to buy physical gold in this way has been declining, so
they have had to switch to alternatives which amount to a single thing
whatever they are called – securitized gold. Whether it’s GoldMoney’s
goldgrams, gold stocks, gold futures on Comex, precious metal mutual funds
or the forty year old Central Fund of Canada [CEF], investors are buying
paper that promises to represent gold in some way.
That sounds an awful lot like a fiat
currency, doesn’t it?
It is, though antagonists will cry foul
because gold is ûber
money. Fair enough, but unless you hold the metal physically, anything
else you have is a promissory note and little else. Possession is
nine-tenths of the law, especially for hardcore gold bugs and even then
president Roosevelt proved to have a trump card.
In modern investment management, paper
or digital gold is a virtue which is why so many metal marketers are
chasing the idea as they watch coin sales shrink thanks to the high
commissions as well as insurance, handling and storage problems. If you
want to do volume business in gold, you need to tap the general retail
market and that group is firmly wedded to paper instruments of one sort or
another; representations of either a perceived or actual value.
While the retail investment market is
not being presented with new
ways to buy gold, there is increasing
choice
which is the most important development because it drives down the final
price to the consumer and will help make gold more competitive.
An unintended consequence is a lurking
threat to gold producer equities. The rash of new funds all promise an
absolute discipline where the amount of paper you own is fixed to a
specific amount of metal. Not so gold equities where the oft mentioned
value of investing indirectly in gold is subject to relentless dilution –
simply examine the change in gold produced per share in issue from one
year to the next to see this impact. It is hardly trivial.
New choices
The new flavour of gold investments is
typified by the pending launch in Canada of the Central Gold-Trust by
Central Gold Managers and Sprott Asset Management.
The Gold-Trust’s key distinction is as
a closed-end fund. This provides greater tax and cost efficiency,
primarily by avoiding the massive money flows at market tops and bottoms
that force turnover and raise transaction costs with concomitant tax
consequences that impact all unit holders irrespective of their passivity.
Gold-Trust is to be listed on the
Toronto Stock Exchange and is being billed as “North America’s first gold
bullion unit trust offering”. Overseeing the fund will be Eric Sprott,
John Embry, Stefan Spicer and Philip Spicer, who is the founder and
Chairman of CEF.
Gold-Trust is coming to market ahead of
the World Gold Council’s much hyped but still absent global exchange
traded gold fund. However, it was beaten to the punch by Australia’s
confusing Gold Bullion Securities [GOLD]. The confusion arises because it
is heavily promoted as a joint initiative with the WGC even though the
latter’s role is limited to acknowledging that Gold Bullion Limited is a
paid up member of the Council.
How this overlap and eventual competing
interest will be resolved remains of interest.
Ultimately, Australian gold products
are handicapped by the currency in which they are denominated, especially
if the intention is to attract American investors who add butter and jam
to the bread baked by everyone else. The Australian dollar has a similar
function to gold as the inverse of the American dollar, which makes
investing in Gold Bullion with US dollars a tricky proposition.
There is also the potential for
confusion with the Perth Mint’s Gold Certificates that have attracted a
lot of attention in America. Adding to the confusion is the Perth Mint’s
determination to list its own listed gold security that “resembles a call
warrant.” Meanwhile, Aussies can also dive into Westpac Bank’s gold
participation deposits.
So far so good for Australians –
provided the fees and complexity are reduced, the competition is real, and
there is adequate gold experience and independence among the trustees.
Canadians are blessed with some more
choice in the Millennium BullionFund which brags of being “Canada's first
and only open-end Mutual Fund Trust that invests in real bars of Gold,
Silver and Platinum and qualifies for RRSPs, RESPs, RRIFs and LIFs.”
All that said, it is tiny with a total
net asset value of less than US$4 million and it is a misrepresentation to
ignore that CEF is older and equally qualifies for retirement investments.
Notably, BullionFund has not injected more competition since its
management fees are huge, as are the potential commissions, even if you
take the CEF’s sometime premium to net asset value into account.
For now though the market anxiously
awaits the WGC’s ETF, not because it is a unique product, but to see
whether or not it can change gold investing dynamics. So far, the total
amount invested in all gold related proxy investments and the metal itself
remains a smidgen relative to total investment flows.
The dark horse is one of the producers
taking the initiative. Here, Goldcorp [GG] especially comes to mind. If it
allowed investors to convert their shares into a special class of scrip
representing the firm’s bullion holdings and vice versa, that could become
quite a play with dual benefits for the company and gold itself. After
all, Goldcorp has done a lot of heavy lifting in the gold market over the
last year; some help from its investors would not go amiss.
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