SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- As investors eagerly await
a U.S.-traded equivalent for gold, several new vehicles are entering the
market.The desire to produce a stock exchange-traded form of gold is
increasing as the metal's price rebounds from the selling that took place
in bullion after the successful, United States-led invasion of Iraq. Gold
on Friday, at $342 an ounce in the spot market, is near its highest point
since March 17.
Analysts including Andy Smith at Mitsui Precious Metals in London say
central bank selling of the metal must ease, and the price of bullion
likely rise, after the Bank of Portugal signaled its gold sales were
completed in April and March. "Look at the price since the Portugal
announcement," Smith told me Friday.
The price of gold since Portugal said on April 24 that it had wrapped
up its sales under the 1999 Washington Agreement, a handshake-pact among
15 central banks to set limits on each year's sales of the metal from
sovereign vaults, is up about $15.
The accelerated sale of gold by Portugal leaves only Switzerland to
sell its bullion, in scheduled amounts of about 6 tons a week, between now
and September, which is the end of the pact's fiscal year.
Smith points out the exhaustion of central bank selling, a practice
that includes the lending of gold that depresses its price, has precedent
for steady gains in the metal. When the Bank of England concluded its
scheduled sales of gold in March 2002, the price of bullion put in its
last month with a price average below $300.
The new gold instruments coming to market could benefit investors who
believe gold's gains will continue steadily, as some observers, including
the usually skeptical Smith at Mitsui, are starting to indicate.
One of them, the Central
Gold Trust, just went on file in Canada. The closed-end trust would
allow investors to buy a securities-equivalent of gold at a discount or
premium, on the Toronto Stock Exchange. As of today, only one other
closed-end fund dealing in bullion trades in North America. Central Fund
of Canada, on the American (CEF)
and Toronto Stock Exchanges, is a repository for gold and silver and
trades at an approximately 20 percent premium to bullion's price.
"Gold-Trust is an investment holding entity created to invest
substantially all of its assets in gold bullion, with the primary
investment objective of achieving long-term appreciation in the value of
its gold holdings," paperwork filed with Canada security officials
says. "The objective of Gold-Trust is to provide a secure,
convenient, low-cost and low-risk investment alternative for investors
interested in holding gold bullion, which is physically stored in bank
treasury vaults located in Canada."
The adviser on the proposed trust is Eric Sprott's Sprott Asset
Management, a Toronto company that is an aggressive investor in gold
companies and actual gold bars. John Embry, the vaunted asset manager from
Canada whose pro-gold beliefs are well known, recently left Royal Bank of
Canada to join Sprott Asset Management.
Another product, a gold proxy in Australia, hit the market this spring.
Gold Bullion Ltd.'s Australia-traded security (GOLD)
is the first exchange-traded fund for a commodity. Unlike a closed-end
trust, which can trade above or below the net asset value of the trust's
holdings, an exchange-traded fund trades with a direct price link to
gold's daily price movements.
The Australia fund has little reach to North American investors. But
it's backed by the World Gold Council, a trade group that has pledged to
boost gold's investment demand by creating similar vehicles, perhaps on
the New York Stock Exchange as soon as the summer. See:Gold
down under.
The buzz at the Las Vegas
Precious Metals Conference earlier this week was about a new
exchange-traded fund for gold. The gold council declined to attend the
event, some say because it is in registration with the Securities and
Exchange Commission on a new, NYSE-traded product. The fund, if it reaches
the NYSE or another U.S. stock exchange, could become the QQQ of gold -- a
reference to the highly successful exchange-traded fund that represents
the Nasdaq 100 Index and trades as a security on the American Stock
Exchange.
A U.S.-traded gold proxy likely would be managed by a large Wall Street
firm such as State Street Advisors, which is one of the largest index
managers in the world. Some sources say Bear Stearns may also be in the
running for the new fund's management, a tricky process that involves
minute-by-minute arbitrage of the gold price as well as end-of-day storage
of gold in a vault.
In the meantime, individual investors looking for gold-linked
investments have the usual choices open to them: gold coins and gold bars,
both available online and via national mints and coin shops. Nearly all
the choices come with the baggage of high commissions, storage and
insurance fees.
Other choices include electronic substitutes for gold such as GoldMoney.com,
which uses gold grams as part of a payment transaction service.
GoldMoney.com is part of a consortium that is attempting to launch its own
exchange-traded fund in Canada, managed by an index asset firm.